NBA | Must-Haves | 1/9/17

Gorgui Dieng (DK: $5,700 FD: $5,500): The Minnesota Timberwolves are full of young studs. One of them who is often overlooked is the former Louisville Cardinal, Gorgui Dieng. The power forward has hit 5x value across seven of the last ten games, including the last four straight. Dieng is a minutes eater, and has logged at least 37 minutes in six of his last ten contests, which presents many more opportunities to contribute peripheral statistics. For example, Dieng took single-digit shot attempts four times during last ten games, and he still averaged nearly 23 FDP per game (still 4x value), while shooting 24 total times. Dieng’s minutes really only take a hit when he gets into foul trouble, and he averages the 7th most fouls per game in the NBA with 3.38 a game. However, as a team Dallas ranks 26th in fouls drawn per game, and lately they have been drawing even less as they use Dirk as their only true big man in the starting rotation and the offense rarely attacks the paint. This gives us confidence that Dieng is less likely than usual to deal with foul trouble. Dieng is averaging over a block a game, and has recorded at least one steal across the last ten games. Much of that is due to being on the court for nearly the entire contest, and we don’t expect that trend to end tonight in a game that’s projected be close. When Dieng has shot the ball at least ten times during the stretch, he has averaged a whopping 38.45 minutes and 30.9 FDP, which comes out to 5.6x value. This stretch includes games against tough frontcourt opponents such as Utah and Atlanta, who own some of the strongest rebounding percentages and differentials. On a small slate, lock in Dieng who is not only safe, but presents serious upside.

 

 

Dwyane Wade (DK: $ 6,200 FD: $6,600): There are many reasons to play Flash tonight. He’s expected to sit tomorrow. He will have an up-tempo game with Oklahoma City tonight where Chicago is projected to score a shade over 103 points. He has shot double-digit field goals in nine of the last ten contests, and has shot over 13 attempts in eight of them. In just a three game slate, you should be thrilled to have a guy fill one of your shooting guard spots who racks up peripheral stats, averaging almost four boards and 4.3 assists per game. Worried about him getting minutes? He will reportedly rest tomorrow, so he should get some big boy run tonight. Wade sat the tail end of a back-to-back on two separate occasions this year. During the first games of those b2b sets, he averaged 36.5 minutes, putting up 43 shots, averaging 23.6 real points, 6.5 boards and contributed his normal allotment in blocks+steals. During those two games, Wade posted an average of 40.5 FDP. But wait, it gets better.

Jimmy Butler is ill and could sit tonight, while Rajon Rondo is still out of the rotation until further notice. Without both of them on the court this season, Wade has an enormous usage of 41%, which is a jump of 9.6% when Rondo and Butler were playing alongside of him this season. There are many pros of playing D-Wade tonight and at a relatively weak shooting guard position there aren’t many cons. You don’t want to be left without him on this three-game slate, so lock him in as the second Must-Have of the slate.

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Any concern Wade draws Roberson if Butler sits? Roberson held Harden in check. I know usage will still be there for Wade, but upside could be limited?

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