This week the PGA tour is heading down the Mexico for the OHL Classic from El Camaleon Golf Course. The course is a short par 71 that only has 3 Par 5s to go with 4 Par 3s. Last year at El Camaleon, Graeme McDowell raised the trophy with a final score of -18 and is back this year to try to win again. This is another tournament where the top 70 and ties will make it through to the weekend and there are two guys that stand out from the rest of the field.
Jon Rahm (DK $10,700) – Rahm is guy who is starting to be on everyone’s radar with his exceptional play of late. He came off of last season hot and has carried that over to the 2016-2017 season with two top 15s in his only two tournaments of the year. He is a guy who last year made the cut 90% of the time while averaging a pretty impressive 83.7 DK points per game. Rahm has been on the verge of breaking through and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Statistically, one thing to be worried about is driving accuracy. Rahm is known to be a bomber who isn’t that accurate off the tee with his driver. This week though, with the short course, Rahm shouldn’t be using his driver off the tee on most of the holes with his distance instead using more accurate clubs. This season so far he is ranked 6th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 6th in Birdie or better, and 21st in Par 4 scoring. Another stat that is important this week is proximity from 150-175 yards where the most shots were hit in years past. This is another stat that Rahm dominates, ranking 5th and averaging 17’11” from the hole. After finishing this tournament last year in 10th place, it is a pretty good bet to see him contending this year as well.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $11,200)- Grillo is another guy who comes into this tournament playing well with top 10s in 9 of his last 15 starts and finishing 11th, 17th, 26th, and 10th in his last 4 starts. He made 92% of cuts last year averaging just under 70 DK points per game. Grillo has not played on this course in the past but has experience playing on Paspalum greens (like those at El Camaleon), where he played well gaining 1.572 strokes since 2014.
Statistically, he excels in driving accuracy off the tee. He ranked 17th on Tour last year and with a course that has some tight fairways, he will be placing himself in good positions to score low. For the proximity from 150-175 yards he also excels, ranking 21st last year to go with his overall ball striking ranking 10th. It is clear Grillo is a guy that is dependable and should score well on a course like El Camaleon.
“When to Play Who”
Last week when looking at ownership, Rahm was over 40% owned in GPPs and over 60% in cash games. Based on our research we feel his high ownership will continue this week. Rahm is also guy that can win any tournament he is in with his ability to score low. Due to that, he is a great cash game play regardless of ownership.
Now with that ownership of Rahm expected to be high again, we feel Grillo is a great pivot for GPP games. With our research we feel both these guys are going to perform well and with lower ownership than Rahm expected, Grillo is a good play to find variance and climb the GPPs.