Scott Schebler (DK: $3,900; FD: $2,600): Our first Must-Have of the night comes at a fantastic value for the matchup he will see tonight. Scott Schebler will face off against righty Adam Wainwright, who has struggled against left-handed hitters over the past year. This season he is allowing a hard-hit rate of over 37 percent, and has a poor 4.66 FIP to lefties dating back to the beginning of the 2018 season. Schebler, in his career against “Waino” holds a .321 wOBA, and has a homer across nine previous plate appearances. Wainwright throws his curveball over 38 percent of the time to left-handed hitters, at an average velocity of 73 mph. Schebler has had success against curveballs from righties, with an ISO of .270 over the last 2 seasons against this pitch, and a wOBA over the .300 mark. As a secondary option, Waino will offer up a cut-fastball over 20 percent of the time. Schebler has very similar pitch values against this pitch as well, with a .256 ISO and a .322 wOBA. On top of all these, Waino offers a low 90’s four-seam fastball just over 15 percent of the time, which Schebler absolutely mashes from right-handed arms. Schebler crushed four-seam fastballs between 90-93 mph to the tune of a .371 ISO, and a .436 wOBA. Schebler will see a solid ballpark boost tonight in Mexico, as the elevation will help the ball carry, and the fences are only 325 feet down the lines. This is crucial as Schebler owns a 47 percent pull rate from 2018, giving him a short right field to put his power on display. Lock Schebler in with confidence as an elite value play for tonight’s contests!
Matt Carpenter (DK: $4,400 FD: $3,100): The left-handed swinging Matt Carpenter is far underpriced for his upside tonight against right-hander Tanner Roark. The Cardinals and Reds will be squaring off in Mexico tonight and we love pairing Carpenter with Schebler in this matchup. Roark was susceptible to left-handed bats in 2018 but already this season he has allowed a .505 wOBA, 6.64 FIP, 2.45 HR/9, 44% fly-balls and a 44% hard-hit rate against left-handers. Carpenter belted 27 homers against righties in 2018 to go along with his .930 OPS, .280 ISO, .385 wOBA, and 45% hard-hit rate against them. When it comes to the pitches Carpenter will see from Roark tonight, he should see a four-seam and two-seam fastball for over 53% of his pitching arsenal. Over the last two seasons, Carpenter has hit four-seamers 90-93 from righties for a .291 xISO and .421 xwOBA while two-seamers are being hit for a .348 xISO and .463 xwOBA. We will be taking this Cardinals’ leadoff hitter across all lineups and formats tonight!
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