Andrew Benintendi (FDraft: $8,900 DK: $4,400 FDuel: $4,100): Andrew Benintendi and the Boston Red Sox will visit Camden Yards, where Dylan Bundy will take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Dylan Bundy has been a wild case this year and tonight he gets a tough left-handed packed lineup against Boston. Against left-handed hitters this year at home, Bundy has allowed a 5.00 FIP, 1.56 HR/9, .507 SLG%, and a .404 wOBA. It is also important to note that he has allowed a 35.1% hard-hit rate while allowing 11 stolen bases in 12 attempts. These exploitable numbers will not hold up well against bag swiping Benintendi since so far this year, Benintendi has stolen 9 bags out of 10 attempts. Against right-handed pitching, Benintendi owns a .963 OPS and a .255 ISO. He also strikes out a low 13.1% and has a .994 OPS with a home run against Bundy in his career. When Benintendi has set foot in the Camden Yards, he has posted a .327 batting average with a .944 OPS in 52 at-bats to prove he likes to hit in Baltimore. Upside is also present there as he has recorded three home runs in this park. When we take a look into what Bundy’s pitching arsenal looks like, he throws a 91.9 MPH fastball 45.37% of the time against left-handed hitters. While Bundy has already struggled with this pitch against lefties, the numbers actually indicate that it should get even worse. He has given up a .165 ISO to lefties on that pitch but his xISO is a .208, indicating more power at-bats should affect him soon. Bundy’s wOBA also carries this case as he is giving up a .326 wOBA but his xwOBA lies at a .350. Why is this a problem tonight? The answer is because Andrew Benintendi absolutely holds power that Bundy is expected to get hit with. Against Bundy’s main pitch of this 91.9 MPH fastball, Benintendi owns a .423 ISO and a .425 wOBA. Benintendi will hit near the top of the order tonight and gets an excellent match up in this one. Benintendi’s stolen base upside with his hitting ability makes him a great play and we are pumped to lock in his safety and upside in as our first Must-Have tonight!
Buster Posey (FDuel: $2,900): Our next MLB DFS Must-Have is Buster Posey who has been made a site specific Must-Have on FanDuel. Taking the mound for the Marlins in this one will be Wei-Yen Chen. This year against right-handed hitters, Chen has allowed a 2.05 HR/9, 7.09 FIP, .553 SLG%, and owns a low k-rate of 11.9%. It is also important to note that he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher allowing a 50.0 FB% to righties this year. Looking into Buster Posey against lefties this year, he has posted a .874 OPS, .222 ISO, and is hitting the ball at a 44.8% hard-hit rate. Against fly-ball pitchers like Chen, Posey owns a .919 OPS, .525 SLG%, and a .339 batting average. While Marlins Park may fear some rostering bats there due to its known impact of being a pitchers park, it hasn’t impacted Posey at all in his career. In Posey’s career in Marlins Park, he owns a .333 batting average and .918 OPS. He also has recorded two home runs in Miami. When we take a look into what Chen throws the most, we see that he relies on his fastball heavily. He throws his 91 MPH fastball to righties 55.50% of the time. Last year, Posey owned a .442 wOBA to that pitch. This year, Posey owns a .563 wOBA and has crushed the pitch with some power as he also owns a .500 ISO against fastballs. The scary part is that his xISO is a .558 to fastballs indicating that he is due for even more power against them. Posey keeps his strikeout rates low at a 7.9% which gives him plenty of safety coming into this matchup. While Posey may be priced higher on other sites, we believe FanDuel has not adjusted his price accordingly and we love to strike in these opportunities. Lock in Posey as our FanDuel Must-Have.
Matt Carpenter (FDraft: $3,300 DK: $6,300): Our last Must-Have is site specific to DraftKings and FantasyDraft with Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is criminally priced on these sites and there is no reason you shouldn’t roster him tonight under this matchup. Carpenter has been seeing the ball really well as of late and will be batting leadoff tonight. Taking the mound for the Padres will be Jordan Lyles. Against left-handed hitters this year on the road, Lyles has posted a 6.31 FIP, 1.93 HR/9, and strikes them out at a below average 18.4%. The interesting part about Lyles is that he owns a low BABIP, but carries a high hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters. This suggests that he due for negative regression. When we take a look at Carpenter, one thing truly stands out about him. He has been hitting RHP at a 48.4% hard-hit rate which ranks the highest among the team and ranks in the top one third of the entire league against righties. Carpenter’s hard-hit rate has also actually climbed to 59.3% in the month of June, so recent signs indicate he is been seeing the ball even better as of late. Looking at Jordan Lyles’ pitching arsenal, we see that he throws a 94.2 MPH fastball 29.75% of the time and his secondary pitch is a curveball. This year against the fastball, Carpenter owns a .455 ISO and against the curveball, Carpenter owns a whopping .967 wOBA. Carpenter’s price offers so much value in such a terrific spot that it is impossible to fade Carpenter on FantasyDraft and DraftKings as our last Must-Have on this slate.
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