Matt Kemp (FDraft: $8,400 DK: $4,400 FDuel: $3,800): If you would’ve told us at the beginning of the season that if the All-Star game voting ended today, Matt Kemp would be a starting outfielder, we’d think you were crazy. However, Kemp’s tremendous offseason work has paid off as he’s slashing a .338/.564/.934 line which is nearly a career best in every category. Kemp has an extremely favorable matchup tonight against “big sexy” Bartolo Colon. Colon has shown big reverse splits metrics this season as he has a 6.08 FIP, 2.72 HR/9, and 47% hard-contact allowed against right-handed hitters. Colon also has the lowest SwingingStrike% on the slate at 5.8% and over the last month he is allowing a ridiculous .414 xwOBA. Colon throws his fastball about 80% of the time and Matt Kemp is one of the better fastball hitters in the league with a 12.6 wFB. Against the two-seam fastball, over the last three years Kemp sports a .434 xwOBA and .276 ISO in 134 batted ball events. Kemp is in an absolute dream matchup tonight and should be locked across the board everywhere.
Yoan Moncada (FDraft: $7,600 DK: $3,900 FDuel: $3,500): Our second MLB DFS Must-Have of the day may not be a starter for the All-Star game, but he sure can do some damage to a baseball. Moncada will receive a favorable matchup against Adam Plutko of the Cleveland Indians tonight. In a limited sample size, Plutko has truly struggled against left-handed bats as he is allowing a .426 wOBA, 7.28 FIP, 2.35 HR/9, 52% hard contact, and a 48% fly-ball rate. To add onto these terrible splits, Plutko is also only striking out left-handed hitters at an 8% clip. In a larger sample at the minor league level, Plutko demonstrated that he is truly not a big strikeout guy. This is the ideal scenario for Moncada as it limits his biggest flaw of striking out. Against right-handed pitching, Moncada sports a .361 xwOBA, .216 ISO, 43% hard-contact, and a 126 wRC+. For a little icing on the cake, Moncada has stolen base upside as well since he swiped a bag in his previous matchup with Plutko. Plutko also relies on his four-seam fastball about 65% of the time, and since Moncada broke into the league, he’s slashing a .379 xwOBA and .200 ISO against this pitch. We absolutely love what Moncada brings to the table tonight and he should be locked in everywhere!
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