Franmil Reyes (DK: $4,100 FD: $2,900): Wow. I feel so blessed. The best possible one-off matchup that exists in all of baseball lands on the MLB Live Final slate. Franmil Reyes, at Comerica, against Michael Fulmer. It really does not get any better than this. If Reyes was $7,000 salary I might have to find a way to get him. First of all, this guy loves hitting at Comerica. In 26 plate appearances, he’s got 1.698 OPS with 4 homers and a double. He has just one singular strikeout to go with seven walks, affirming that he sees the ball incredibly well here. The matchup is made in heaven, as Fulmer has EXTREME reverse splits. Like, probably the most extreme ever. He’s allowing a .432 ISO and .585 wOBA to righties, with his x numbers basically the same. Meanwhile, his xISO to lefties is just .102 and his xwOBA is .324. He throws a sinker, slider, and fastball to righties, and all three get hit for power. DFI has nailed Reyes pretty much every time we’ve picked him because we understand he hits three pitches really well. This combo of fastball sinker slider is a pretty common combo for right-handed pitchers to throw against right-handed hitters. These are Reyes’ power pitches, and therefore there’s nothing Fulmer can throw to him that he doesn’t completely demolish. So how has Reyes fared in the past when he faced Fulmer? Exactly as we’d expect. 2 homers in 3 ABs with a walk and no strikeouts. So even though Fulmer won’t pitch deep into the game, the 2 at-bats we expect Reyes to get against him are well worth it. The bullpen behind Fulmer is pretty terrible, and it’s an added bonus being on the road to get a guaranteed full 9 innings of hitting opportunities. Lock in Reyes and expect big things.
Jose Marmolejos (DK: $2,900; FD: $2,700): Our second Must-Have for tonight’s large slate comes from the Mariners. Jose Marmolejos and the “M’s” will be taking on Chris Paddack tonight who has struggled this year and has also seen a large velocity drop giving him extra opportunity to blow up. Paddack’s numbers to lefties are awful with a .236 ISO and .341 wOBA, but he is due for even more regression as his xISO is .238 and his xwOBA is .386. Paddack also owns a lower BABIP below .300 and a 44% hard-hit rate to lefties further hammering home the point that Paddack is due for regression. Marmolejos on the other hand has been on fire against right-handed pitching with a .918 OPS and .317 ISO to go with a 46% hard-hit rate and a .279 BABIP. Just like Paddack, Marmolejos is due for regression, but Marmolejos’ is positive as he should be hitting better with his BABIP and his hard-hit rate. We love Marmolejos today and want him locked into your outfield alongside Reyes. Good luck tonight!
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