This week, the PGA Tour heads to Dallas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. After many years playing this tournament at TPC Four Seasons, they added a new course to the Tour this season in Trinity Forest, which is a Par 71 7,380 yard links course. Trinity Forest isn’t your typical course on Tour, as it is built on a landfill and more resembles the links-style courses usually found at The Open and on the European Tour. Trinity Forest will require patience and strategy on approach shots, and this course might even take some getting used to.
Although this is the first tournament at this course, our research suggests the below key stats are critical to success this week.
-SG: Ball Striking
-Par 5 Scoring
After factoring in all of these key stats over an optimal past 24 rounds for the entire field, here are our top two plays of the week…
Must Have #1- Branden Grace
Grace comes into the week making his last 10 cuts while gaining 3.9 strokes on the field over that time frame. Although there is no course history, we can look at some courses that have some correlation with the links-styles of Royal Birkdale and Chambers Bay. At Royal Birkdale last year, Grace shot the course record with a 62 which helped him secure a 6th-place finish. In 2015 at the US Open played at Chambers Bay, Grace finished T4th at 3-under which was 2 shots behind the winner Spieth. When we dig into those key stats, Grace doesn’t show many weaknesses over his last 24 rounds…
-SG Ball Striking: 24th
-SG Approach: 25th
-Par 5 Scoring: 9th
-SG Around the Green: 21st
To go along with his ability in those key stats, he also ranks 9th overall in fantasy points in that time. His stats, recent form, and ability on these style courses make him the perfect golfer to start your lineups with. There are not many reliable plays this week given the new course and all, but Grace delivers some certainty in seeing the weekend given his pure form right now. Expect his low altitude approach shots to be very fortuitous at this links course.
Must Have #2- Grayson Murray
Murray comes into this week making 5 of his last 6 cuts which include 3 finishes in the top 20. He has quietly put together a solid season so far ranking 67th this year in the FedEx Cup Standings. When you dig into his last 24 rounds he is at or near the top in almost all of the key stats below…
-SG Ball Striking: 6th
-SG Approach: 36th
-Par 5 Scoring: 13th
-SG Around the Green: 13th
Not only are his key stats impressive, he also ranks 1st in the field in fantasy points over that time frame. The one key stat that really stands out is his ability to get birdies (or better) recently. That is something that has really helped him this season be more consistent which has translated into more made cuts and higher finishes. He is utilizing his length off-the-tee to take down some scoreable par-4’s, and his length from the fairway has been freeing him up to attack par-5’s. With one of the weakest fields of the season this week, we feel Murray is underpriced for his ability and form right now. Not only do we expect him to hit value, he is also someone that we could see competing for his first win on Tour.
DISCLAIMER: Copyright Daily Fantasy Insider LLC (DFI LLC). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Daily Fantasy Insider LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFI LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Daily Fantasy Insider LLC at the time of publication.