Alex Alegria (DK: $5,500): Real Betis are in a great spot on this slate, as they host Sporting Gijon. Gijon are the worst away side in La Liga and haven’t won an away match yet this season. As a matter of fact, they have failed to win their last 16 away matches and their coach was sacked this past week. Gijon’s morale, form, and identity will be low going into this match, which creates a very favorable situation for Real Betis. Betis enter Sunday having not lost in their past five home matches; winning four of the five. They have scored nine goals during that stretch, while only allowing goals in one match. Betis are significantly better as a home team this season, averaging 14 shots per match (eight away) and have scored 12 goals (eight away). Our research shows that Alex Alegria provides value from this very favorable matchup. Alegria has only scored two goals and has one assist on the season, but he has largely been used as a substitute until a recent string of injuries. In home matches, he averages 1.8 shots per game and 2.2 fouls drawn per game in limited playing time. Alegria has struggled to find a place in the starting 11, but with injuries to Joaquin and Sanabria he should be set to start as one of the forwards for Betis. He is also listed behind only Ruben Castro as the Betis player that is most likely to score in this match-up. Alegria’s game logs don’t tell the whole story and he is definitely worth a spot on your roster given his upside versus Sporting Gijon.
Willian Jose (DK: $6,500): Willian Jose provides another great value play to build your lineups around. Real Sociedad host Celta Vigo in a great matchup between top ten sides. Sociedad have lost tough home matches versus Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Sevilla, but they are otherwise undefeated at home this season. Willian Jose is the squad’s top goal-scoring threat, with nine goals so far this campaign. Remarkably, eight of his nine goals have happened in home matches, where he averages a team high 3.2 shots per match. Unsurprisingly, Jose has the best odds to score of anyone on the Sociedad squad Sunday, while also taking most set pieces and splitting penalty duties. He has scored three goals from set pieces and two goals from the penalty spot this season. All of these goals have occurred at home. He averages 11.4 DK points per match and has scored multiple goals in two home matches this season. Jose’s price is nearly half of Messi’s and he exhibits 30 fantasy point upside. Historically, Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad have high scoring matches and Sociedad have scored at least two goals in five of their last six home matches versus Celta Vigo in all competitions. Not to mention, Celta Vigo have failed to win 10 of their last 11 away matches in La Liga. With several key injuries and suspensions, Willian Jose will be tasked to help carry the offense to a vital home win. Plug him in with confidence in all contests.
These two Must-Haves were specifically chosen as low-cost value plays to help create room for the high-priced stars on this slate. The slate is very interesting, as two top teams are playing in challenging away fixtures. Barcelona have earned the most away points this season, but Eibar have allowed the second-fewest home goals (8) in La Liga this season. The situation is similar for Atletico Madrid, as Bilbao have also allowed only 8 goals at home this season. Messi and Suarez have been in incredible form and are very dangerous to fade, but the inconsistency of the Atletico Madrid attack may warrant a fade given their tough match-up. Good luck!
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